Idalia

[Centermass]

I’m not a meteorologist, nor did I stay in a holiday inn express last night. But, if I were to place a bet in Vegas on the landing… I would say the eye will go over Apalachicola, tomorrow afternoon… and she will be a Cat4

[jkp]

I sure hope you are wrong about that landfall as I have a home 20 miles east of there. I'm thinking Cedar Key area.

[breamfisher]

Right now the track is right over Jena/Steinhatchee.

But, in the last 12 or so hours they've raised the strength at landfall from 115 mph to 125. A Cat 4 is 130, so we shall see.

[breamfisher]

FB_IMG_1693339492831.jpg (51 KiB) Viewed 4358 times

Slight recurve to the models.

[GrapeApe]

AVNI and TABS plots look like "Florida Man" has PO'd mother nature

[Zorba]

Reason #1,341,208 why I completely ignore the MSM and their talking heads and projections.

[GrapeApe]

Looks like St. Marks powder plant might take a hit.

They make powder for Hodgdon, and, IIRC quite a few other powder companies.

[jkp]

Looks like St. Marks powder plant might take a hit.

They make powder for Hodgdon, and, IIRC quite a few other powder companies.

I grew up in that county. That location should be fine. Of course the plant is well built with few trees surrounding it.

[Centermass]

I was about 50 miles and 12 hours off… I guess I should have have stayed at a holiday inn express…

[NuttyNed]

We are sitting here waiting, it appears we will have winds 0f 25 -35 miles per hour and 4-6 inches of rain.

I plan on sand bagging the side door and hoping for the best.

[GrapeApe]

Be careful Ned

[Bigslug]

It must be serious - The Weather Channel is playing their "dramatic tension" music during the Local On The 8's breaks.

A Cat 3 over land - impressive. They're stating Cedar Key has almost 7 feet of surge flooding.

Curious to see if it will manage to re-strengthen itself once it crosses back over water on the east coast.

[Zorba]

It probably *is* serious, you just don't know what to believe and what not to when it comes to talking heads. Saw a guy standing in calf deep water in the middle of a street. Ok... So that must be the worst they could show at that particular instant in time, but how widespread was it? Camera wasn't panning around, no alternate scenes, etc, etc - so my guess is "not far". After seeing a COMPLETELY FAKE camera setup in Cocoa Beach a few years back, I don't believe anything I hear or see in the "media".

[Big Al1]

We had very 1-2" of rain yesterday, this morning wind is about 5mph, supposed to get to 20-25mph later this morning. After Michael, I know what they are going through!

[breamfisher]

Cedar Key's flooding is bad. The stuff near Steinhatchee and Keaton Beach is worse. And there's flooding down to Tampon Springs.

Another thing to remember is that the places that are geting hit rarely get major hurricanes. The last major to hit the Big Bend was1950.

[jkp]

It's a sparsely populated area, but many of the structures are older and not built to current standards. Lots of mobile homes in the area as well.

Most damage, as already noted, will be attributed to flooding. Which may prove to be an issue for a lot of folks that don't carry flood insurance.

[breamfisher]

Yeah, always get flood insurance if there's a possibility of flooding.

[Centermass]

Super storm potential? Maybe

[jkp]

Not even close.

[NuttyNed]

We had rain, ditches are full, water standing in the yard; maybe a gal or less in the garage. Sand bags at the back door held or were not tested.
Small stuff down in the yard, most can be handled by the lawn mower.
Wind to maybe 30 or so. To be windy the rest of the day----temp now 72 at 0940.

We thank the Lord on this one. Amen

[Chiro1989]

Anyone hear from Gene?

[Make_My_Day]

We got a few hard rains but that was about it. We live 40 miles NW of downtown Orlando.

[breamfisher]

Looking at footage, Cedar Key, Horseshoe Beach, Steinhatchee, an Keaton Beach got wrecked.

A friend who lives in St. Petersburg got flooded out.

[jbp-ohio]

[Gila]

How long is this going to take...